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S/E/225. The importance of uncertainty in monetary policy-making

WORDS:
1600
DATE:
2010
PRICE:
19.99 GBP

The paper argues that central bankers inevitably find themselves unable to make long-term predictions about the state of the economy, simply because of uncertainty about what the state of the economy will be when their decisions take effect. Secondly, the reaction of some parts of the economy to monetary policy is uncertain, as central bankers will lack perfect date information, and that economic indicators and information are often unreliable. The research highlights Milton Friedman's belief that monetary policy works in long and variable lags, but also presents the works of theorists who have recommended the implementation of optimal rules and inflation targets to anchor economic expectations.

 

KEYWORDS: Monetary policy, uncertainty and risk, central banks, inflation targets,

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