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Other Papers on :Political Sociology

S/P/77. Is it possible to predict revolutions?

(2005, 2100 words)

The essay tackles two problems; what a revolution actually is, and whether such an event is ever predictable. It argues that while we can observe a number of similarities and common threads within collective violent political actions, the actual task of predicting a revolution is for the moment beyond us. In terms of defining a revolution, the paper charts the theoretical progression in the academic literature, from natural history theory to the structuralist ideas of Skocpol and Goldstone. There are also references to specific cases, both historical (France, Russia) and more contemporary (Iran, Ukraine).
 
   
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